With the Spring Classics approaching, cycling expert José De Cauwer has called on riders and teams to rethink their approach if they want to challenge the dominance of Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, and Tadej Pogacar. These three riders have increasingly dictated the outcomes of major one-day races, leaving little room for outsiders to claim victory.
Speaking in an interview with WielerFlits, De Cauwer stressed that if competitors wish to have any real chance of success, they must adopt new tactics and strategies. “Cyclists need to start looking at the sport differently,” he urged. “If they continue to race in the same way, they will always fall victim to the superiority of these three.”
The Challenge of the ‘Big Three’
For several years now, the battle for victory in the major Classics has seemingly been reduced to just three names. This is no accident. The sheer talent and race craft of Van der Poel, Van Aert, and Pogacar have elevated them to an elite tier, far above most of their competition. Their dominance is further reinforced by the power of their teams—Alpecin-Deceuninck, Visma | Lease a Bike, and UAE Team Emirates—all of whom have built formidable squads around their respective leaders.
Two years ago, Pogacar proved that the cobbled terrain of the Tour of Flanders was no obstacle to his brilliance, claiming victory with a commanding solo ride. The Slovenian, who has already cemented himself as one of the greatest Grand Tour riders of his generation, showed that his versatility extends beyond multi-week races. Now, with his return to the Flemish Classics, rivals hoping for a tactical standoff between Van der Poel and Van Aert will find no such relief. Pogacar’s presence eliminates the possibility of stalemates, as his relentless attacking style forces action early and often.
De Cauwer acknowledges the dilemma this poses for other competitors. “With Pogacar in the mix, who benefits the most?” he asks. “Is it Wout? Is it Mathieu? Or does it only serve to make their job harder?” For those outside this exclusive trio, the task is clear: they must find a way to disrupt the established order.
The Shift in Cycling Dynamics
Looking back at past editions of the Spring Classics, it is striking how much the nature of these races has changed. There was once an era when unexpected winners could emerge—riders who weren’t necessarily household names but found themselves in the right breakaway, executing a perfectly timed move to seize a historic victory. Names like Johan Vansummeren, who won Paris-Roubaix in 2011, and Nick Nuyens, who triumphed at the Tour of Flanders in 2011, come to mind.
But in today’s cycling landscape, such surprises are increasingly rare. The rise of superteams has tilted the scales significantly in favor of the biggest stars. “If you look at UAE Team Emirates or Visma | Lease a Bike, they can sign almost anyone they want,” De Cauwer explains. “With their budgets, they have access to the best riders, the best training, the best nutrition, and the best technology. If you have the finest ingredients, you will produce the finest results.”
This financial muscle allows these teams to build rosters stacked with talent. However, rather than fostering more competition, it has led to a situation where strong riders who might have once won races as team leaders are now relegated to domestique roles. This shift has been a source of frustration for purists like Roger De Vlaeminck, a four-time winner of Paris-Roubaix, who frequently laments the current state of affairs. “I would never have done that,” De Vlaeminck has said. “I would have fought to win, not just to support someone else’s chances.”
De Cauwer shares this sentiment, acknowledging that the evolution of team dynamics has made it much harder to challenge the top names. “It’s difficult to stop these big three when so many talented riders are assigned supporting roles,” he says. “We’ve seen so many guys who could have been contenders in another era now riding in service of a single leader.”
A New Approach is Needed
One of the most pressing questions for teams like Soudal – Quick-Step, who currently lack a top-tier Classics leader, is how they can realistically compete against this dominant trio. De Cauwer believes the answer lies in a fundamental shift in race strategy.
“I think riders and teams need to rethink how they race,” he asserts. “If you find yourself up the road with one of the big three, you should never simply work alongside them. That’s a guaranteed way to lose. They will ride with you right up to the finish line, and then they’ll drop you when it matters most.”
Instead, De Cauwer suggests that riders must take greater risks and refuse to settle for second place. Too often, he argues, team directors are content with podium finishes rather than taking the kind of bold, unpredictable actions that could genuinely challenge the top riders.
“There are times when it feels like some teams are just happy to finish second,” he says. “But that’s a losing mentality. The weaker teams must protect themselves better, work together more often, and find ways to disrupt the control of the big three.”
He points out that in past eras, alliances between underdogs were more common. Teams that lacked a clear favorite would often collaborate in an effort to unseat the dominant forces. However, in the modern peloton, that spirit of cooperation seems to have diminished, with teams too often conceding control to the biggest stars.
What Can Be Done?
So, what can be done to restore unpredictability to the Spring Classics? De Cauwer suggests several potential solutions:
- More Aggressive Racing from the Start: Riders should be willing to attack from further out, rather than waiting until the decisive final kilometers where the big three thrive.
- Tactical Alliances: Mid-tier teams should work together to isolate Van der Poel, Van Aert, and Pogacar, forcing them to expend energy earlier than they’d like.
- Unconventional Strategies: Instead of following the predictable race patterns, teams should introduce unexpected tactics—attacking in places where the favorites don’t expect, or even using decoys to force mistakes.
- Developing New Leaders: Teams must invest in developing new Classics contenders rather than relying solely on their current rosters. They should take chances on younger riders and give them leadership opportunities.
- Refusing to Work for the Big Three: When breakaways form, riders must resist the temptation to collaborate with Pogacar, Van Aert, or Van der Poel. Instead, they should force them into difficult situations where they have to do more work.
A Defining Spring Ahead
As the 2024 Spring Classics draw closer, it remains to be seen whether any team can disrupt the reign of the big three. With Pogacar returning to the Flemish cobbles, the challenge has only grown steeper. However, if teams and riders take De Cauwer’s advice to heart and truly commit to new tactics, there may yet be a chance for fresh faces to emerge.
For now, the cycling world watches with anticipation, waiting to see if the sport’s landscape will shift—or if the status quo will remain firmly in place, with Van der Poel, Van Aert, and Pogacar continuing their dominance.
