Fifteen years back, renowned author Michael Lewis penned “The Big Short,” a book that emerged as the quintessential work on the financial crisis of the late 2000s.
On Saturday night, Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison orchestrated the NBA’s equivalent of “The Big Short,” as he consented to send Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for a deal centered around Anthony Davis. The deal was so surprising that once ESPN’s Shams Charania reported it, numerous individuals immediately contacted to inquire if his social media account had been compromised.
As Shams verified, it had not been. The Mavericks decided to take a bold gamble on the future of a player who, at just 25, boasts one of the most impressive records in basketball history.
Doncic has been chosen for the All-NBA First Team in each of the last five seasons. Although he cannot join the team this season due to the calf strain that has kept him out since December 25, he is one of just five active players with that many First Team selections (and one of only 28 in the history of the NBA).
The remaining four? Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James, Doncic’s new teammate.
Antetokounmpo celebrated his 30th birthday in early December. Harden is 35 years old. Durant is 36 years old. James is 40 years old.
Doncic won’t turn 26 until February 28.
Doncic is a top-tier offensive player who guided Dallas to the NBA Finals in the previous season. He began this season positioned second only to Nikola Jokic in ESPN’s NBA Rank and shared the title of co-favorite with Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to secure his first MVP award. He has also achieved significant success on the international stage representing his home country of Slovenia.
Consequently, the collective response from those outside the Dallas-Fort Worth area in the early hours of Saturday was that the Lakers had emerged victorious in the trade — and they found it baffling.
“What the hell is going on?” remarked an assistant coach.
“I have a sensation of dreaming,” remarked an agent.
“The level of confusion regarding the league is considerably elevated,” stated an executive.
This is an event that will be remembered by the league for a long time. It resembles when Paul George was traded to the LA Clippers late at night six years ago, confirming that Kawhi Leonard would also join the Clippers. Or when Durant announced he would be joining the Golden State Warriors on July 4, 2016. Or when James faced Jim Gray and announced in 2010 that he was bringing his talents to South Beach.
The Mavericks’ gamble against Doncic, linked to concerns about his conditioning and the possible supermax deal he could sign this summer, as reported by sources to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, is the main point of interest from a significant trade in the NBA that hasn’t been seen in a while. Doncic has played only 22 games this season and has not exceeded 70 games in a season since his debut year.
“You should be certain that his body will deteriorate,” remarked an executive from the Eastern Conference. “That’s everything I have to say.”
That’s merely one of the significant narratives as the league processes what the agreement implies for Davis, Doncic, the Mavericks, the Lakers, and everyone else going ahead.
This represents a substantial wager against Doncic, while simultaneously being an enormous wager in favor of Davis. Multiple sources that talked to ESPN questioned why Dallas hadn’t explored the league to assess how much they could obtain for Doncic if they considered trading him; many believed the Mavs clearly could’ve received a greater return.
“Nico must truly care for Anthony Davis,” remarked a Western Conference executive.
Harrison unmistakably focused on Davis, an individual with whom he shares a deep-rooted connection stemming from his previous position as a senior Nike executive. Davis, during what might be the finest season of his career (averaging 25.7 PPG and 11.9 RPG while shooting 52.8% from the field), demonstrated his eagerness to join Dallas when, as reported by ESPN’s Bobby Marks, he relinquished his trade bonus to facilitate the deal and also help Dallas remain under the luxury tax for now.
This isn’t the first occasion that Harrison has targeted a player with whom he had an established connection. Recent instances feature his acquisitions of P.J. Washington (from the Charlotte Hornets) last year and Kyrie Irving (from the Brooklyn Nets) two years prior.
Both the Irving and Washington trades faced scrutiny immediately after their execution, yet they contributed to propelling Dallas to the Finals last season. Only time will reveal if Harrison’s most recent gamble will be successful as well.
This will be the deal that shapes Harrison’s career, especially considering he has already surrendered control of the Mavericks’ first-round selections from 2027 to 2030.
Lakers superiority has returned.
There’s a reason the Lakers have been the NBA’s most prestigious franchise for over 60 years. One star following another — from Jerry West to Wilt Chamberlain to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Magic Johnson to Shaquille O’Neal to Kobe Bryant to LeBron James to Anthony Davis — has made his mark in the Purple and Gold.
All eight of those players were recognized as part of the 75 greatest in NBA history for the league’s 75th anniversary team in 2021, and only West was obtained with a draft pick that initially belonged to the Lakers.
Currently, Los Angeles possesses Doncic — someone who seems destined to make the 100th anniversary team in a couple of decades — and obtained him without giving up its 2031 first-round selection. Many sources were astonished to discover that Dallas secured solely the Lakers’ 2029 first-round pick and did not obtain the 2031 pick too. Many were shocked that the Lakers again landed a generational talent, or that Dallas was even prepared to trade Doncic initially.
The most fitting analogy for this trade is Abdul-Jabbar’s move to Los Angeles in 1975. That Lakers squad, similar to this one, lacked the quality to secure a championship. It required an additional four years—until Los Angeles picked Magic Johnson in the 1979 draft—for the Lakers to reach that elite level again.
However, similar to how the Lakers secured Abdul-Jabbar 50 years back, they have now obtained an MVP-caliber player at his peak. Abdul-Jabbar came to L.A. two seasons following the conclusion of the Chamberlain era. Now Doncic is coming in as the LeBron era approaches its conclusion. While Dallas is wagering on the big short, the Lakers are counting on witnessing the peak years of Doncic’s career in the upcoming seasons.
The Mavericks executed this trade convinced that the pairing of Irving and Davis could serve as the foundation of a championship pursuit, as Harrison stated to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon.
Harrison stated that with this trade, Dallas is “structured to succeed both now and in the long term.” Several executives think the “future” aspect of that response actually refers to the coming 18 months, since Irving (turning 33 next month) and Davis (turning 32 next month) aren’t likely to sustain a championship-caliber foundation for a prolonged duration.
Regardless of the limit you choose to place on the Mavericks’ timeframe for championship contention, it is clear that this is a trade a team undertakes if it is aiming to win now, rather than later. Following the trade, Dallas currently possesses a roster featuring one elite ball handler: Irving, who is coping with a bulging disc in his back.
Consequently, it appears this week in Dallas will be quite hectic, as it seems improbable that the Mavs will remain inactive before the trade deadline at 3 p.m. Thursday. It also raises questions about whether Dereck Lively might be a potential trade option this week. Dallas not only has Daniel Gafford to team up with Davis, but Lively will be sidelined for months due to a foot injury. He may not return to play this season and could serve as a key trade asset to enhance the team’s roster.
Additionally, it will be fascinating to observe how all the existing elements in Dallas come together. Certainly, Davis is eager to play at power forward, which he prefers, but he has found success as a full-time center in recent years (particularly this season) due to a specific reason: his shooting limitations. He has a 29.8% shooting percentage from 3-point range this season, which is an improvement compared to the 24.8% he recorded over the last four seasons.
Washington is a power forward who will probably need to play at small forward now. Is he able to stay up there? Klay Thompson, who will be 35 on Saturday, has been playing as a small forward but should actually be defending power forwards now. He may no longer be part of the starting lineup. Rather, one could effectively argue that Max Christie, also obtained in the trade and rapidly developing into a valuable 3-and-D wing over recent months, ought to begin alongside Irving in the backcourt, with Davis, Gafford, and Washington in the frontcourt.
In general, the Mavericks think their height and defensive capabilities provide them a real opportunity to replicate last year’s success. They now have a large team overall, and we’ve witnessed how positional size has aided both the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics in securing the last two championships.
However, the main point is that it appears there is still a considerable amount of work remaining in Dallas this week.
“I’m still amazed,” an official from the Eastern Conference shared with ESPN on Sunday morning.
