During yesterday’s Fenway Fest fan event, Red Sox top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell revealed that they have yet to receive communication from the team’s management about potentially signing long-term extensions in Boston. Today, a report by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe indicates that although the Red Sox haven’t initiated talks regarding contract extensions, the team is still keen on considering the option with its leading prospects.
Specifically, Speier mentions Anthony, Campbell, and highly-rated infield prospect Marcelo Mayer as young players the team wishes to discuss extensions with. Campbell has specifically indicated that he would be open to discussions if the Red Sox reach out to him. Speier mentions that the club’s 2023 fourth-round pick informed reporters last season that he would be “100 percent” interested in a long-term agreement with Boston and also indicates that Anthony is perceived as being open to “at least consider” a long-term extension if the Red Sox were to reach out to him.
All three youths possess notable potential lineage. Baseball America reports that Anthony is the number one prospect in baseball, with Mayer following closely at #10 and Campbell coming in at #24. MLB Pipeline, on the other hand, places all three prospects in the top ten: Anthony holds the #3 spot overall, following Dylan Crews of the Nationals and Walker Jenkins of the Twins, with Mayer at #7 and Campbell completing the group at #10. The trio’s play on the field has typically supported those rankings too. In 2024, Campbell advanced through three tiers of the minors, achieving a slash line of .330/.439/.558, whereas Anthony posted a .291/.396/.498 at the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Mayer played only 77 games at Double-A last year because of injuries, yet he still produced a respectable .307/.370/.480 in his age-21 season.
Pre-debut extensions for players with such high prospect credentials are quite uncommon, but one took place last winter involving the Brewers and outfielder Jackson Chourio, who was rated as the #2 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline when the agreement was made. Chourio ultimately signed an eight-year extension last offseason that secured him $82MM, including club options and incentives that could elevate the contract to a maximum of $142.5MM over a ten-year period. Chourio’s extension appears to be a reasonable standard for Anthony if he ends up agreeing to a contract prior to his major league debut, considering their comparable prospect rankings and Anthony’s role as a similar five-tool outfielder expected to play in a corner position at the major league level.
Campbell and Mayer, conversely, might not be positioned for earnings at such a degree. Tigers infielder Colt Keith found himself at the opposite end of the pre-arbitration extension spectrum after signing a six-year contract last winter. That agreement secures Keith $28.6425MM and could reach a total of $82MM over nine years if the Tigers exercise three club options they have on the young player’s services. Before the 2024 season, Keith was considered a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport but did not make the top 20 in any major ranking service. That restricts Keith’s value as a benchmark for Campbell and Mayer, since both are considered top-10 prospects by at least one leading prospect source.
Keith ranks lower on the defensive spectrum compared to Campbell and particularly Mayer. During his time in the minor leagues, he played exclusively at second and third base, while both Red Sox infielders have primarily occupied shortstop during their minor league careers. Although Campbell has played both second base and the outfield, manager Alex Cora indicated to reporters (including Christopher Smith from MassLive) yesterday that the team intends for Mayer to begin playing second and third base alongside shortstop this season. The skill to play shortstop combined with a stronger prospect background likely positions both Red Sox infielders to elevate their asking prices significantly above Keith’s contract.
Certainly, it’s also feasible that the Red Sox may choose to delay negotiating an extension with one or more of the trio until after they have made their major league debut. Speier highlights that the team signed utility player Ceddanne Rafaela to an eight-year, $50MM contract in April, shortly after he had around 100 plate appearances in the major leagues. The agreement could reach up to $62MM over nine years, yet it ranks as one of the lower-value deals negotiated at this point in a player’s career in recent years; only Aaron Ashby’s $20.5MM extension with the Brewers has guaranteed less in the last five years. Observing MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals how rapidly a player’s demand can soar after they have accumulated major league service time. Julio Rodriguez’s $210MM contract with the Mariners is the highest among recent deals, but Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. also signed extensions with under a year of big league experience that surpassed the $82MM deal Chourio received from the Brewers last offseason.
Considering how quickly an extension’s cost can soar once a young player starts making a name for themselves in the major leagues, it’s easy to envision the Red Sox being especially eager to explore if an agreement can be made soon between the parties. That said, the club has demonstrated a readiness to extend contracts for players later in their careers too. The Boston brass have already started talks with left-hander Garrett Crochet regarding a potential extension, with two years remaining until free agency, and the team has previously secured nine-figure deals for Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers prior to their last seasons before hitting free agency.
